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sport.soccer-expected-goals Calculator
Calculates expected goals (xG) for a shot from distance, shot angle, and whether it was a header, using a logistic regression model of historical goal probability. xG above 0.3 is a high-quality chance; summing xG over a match reveals which team created the better opportunities.
Inputs
Shot Distance M
Separation between two points or total path length. Check that units are consistent throughout the calculation.
Shot Angle Deg
Reference formula or conversion factor shown for context.
Is Header
Reference formula or conversion factor shown for context.
Is Assisted
Reference formula or conversion factor shown for context.
Results
expected goals (xG)
Reference formula or conversion factor shown for context.
shot quality
A qualitative assessment of how the result compares to the desired standard or benchmark.
distance factor
The computed distance or separation.
angle factor
A dimensionless multiplier applied in the calculation.
xG 0.3
Reference formula or conversion factor shown for context.
PK xG
Reference formula or conversion factor shown for context.